Russia has begun withdrawing a large portion of its military equipment and personnel from Syria following the ouster of former President Bashar al-Assad. This move comes amidst the rapidly changing political landscape in Syria, with various factions vying for control.
On December 13, 2024, satellite imagery captured Russian cargo planes, including at least two Antonov AN-124s, at the Khmeimim air base in Latakia with their nose cones open, indicating preparations for loading. A Syrian security official confirmed that at least one cargo plane flew out to Libya on December 14.
Despite the withdrawal, Russia is not completely abandoning its military presence in Syria. The Khmeimim airbase and the Tartous naval facility remain operational, as they are crucial for Russia’s influence in the Middle East, Mediterranean basin, and Africa. However, the ousting of Assad, who had maintained a close alliance with Moscow, has cast uncertainty over the future of these bases.
Experts believe that Russia is likely using the Caucasus as a transit route to move military equipment to Libya, specifically to the Al Khadim airbase east of Benghazi. This base has been a hub for Russian military and Wagner Group activities in Libya.
The Kremlin has stated that it is in discussions with the new authorities in Syria regarding the future of its bases. Moscow is pulling back its forces from the front lines and withdrawing some heavy equipment and senior Syrian officers, but it currently has no intention of leaving its main bases.
The strategic importance of these bases cannot be overstated. The Tartous naval base is Russia’s only Mediterranean repair and resupply hub, while the Khmeimim airbase serves as a major staging post for military and mercenary activities in Africa. Losing these bases would significantly impact Russia’s ability to project power in the region and move illicit materials between Russia and Africa.
In recent months, Russia has been increasing its military presence in Libya, deploying troops under the banner of the ‘African Corps’ in southern Libya. This deployment includes a mix of light and heavy vehicles, such as pickups, GAZ and KAMAZ trucks, as well as ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft artillery, and aircraft.
In eastern Libya, analysts estimate that the Russian presence ranges from 1,000 to 1,500 individuals. Airbases like Al-Jufra facilitate Russian military flights, serving as layovers before proceeding south to other African nations. The Kremlin’s strategic objective is clear: to bolster its influence in the African continent.
At the time, Theresa May the U.K. Prime Minister warned that Russia’s deployment in Libya is to enforce a new stranglehold on European immigration routes. The U.K. DOD believes that Russia’s primary goal is to seize control of the biggest illegal immigration route to Europe in order to pressure the West.
The withdrawal from Syria and the transfer of military equipment to Libya highlight Russia’s strategic pivot towards consolidating its influence in Africa and the Mediterranean.