Nigeria approved a defence budget of ₦3.16 trillion ($2.10 billion) for FY2026 on 31 March 2026 – a nominal record and the latest step in President Bola Tinubu’s aggressive push to rebuild military capacity. On paper the figure looks decisive. In practice, inflation wipes out 8.5% of its real-terms value before a single naira is spent.
The 2026 allocation represents a nominal 2% rise over the ₦3.10 trillion approved in 2025, which itself nearly doubled the ₦1.58 trillion in the 2024 budget. Tinubu’s sweeping economic reforms – including the removal of fuel subsidies and a sharp naira devaluation – have pushed inflation high enough to turn that upward trajectory into a quiet contraction. For a military fighting on multiple fronts, the distinction matters.
Of the total defence envelope, the Nigerian Army takes the largest share: ₦1.504 trillion, endorsed by a joint session of the Senate and House Committees on Army on 16 February 2026. The Nigerian Air Force (NAF) received ₦407.2 billion – an 8.1% increase over 2025, though still a 3.1% drop in real terms. The Nigerian Navy’s allocation came in at ₦443.9 billion, falling roughly 10% in real terms from the prior year.
Across all three services, personnel costs dominate. Of the total Ministry of Defence allocation, ₦2.39 trillion – around 76% – goes to pay and allowances, according to budget documentation released by the Budget Office of the Federation. That leaves ₦464.47 billion for capital expenditure, the lowest proportion since 2021 at just 15% of the total. For the army and navy in particular, investment budgets fell 37% in real terms after accommodating rising payroll.
Air Power Takes Priority
The NAF is the clearest beneficiary of this year’s allocation, and the operational logic is not hard to trace. The service played a central role in counter-insurgency strikes in the north throughout 2025 and supported Nigerian intervention in Benin in December of that year, when Abuja deployed troops and aircraft to help quell a coup attempt. That heightened operational tempo appears to have shaped how money was distributed: NAF overheads – training, maintenance, fuel – jumped 18% in the 2026 budget.
The spending pattern lines up with recent procurement. Nigeria is acquiring 24 M-346FA multi-role aircraft from Italy’s Leonardo under a €1.2 billion contract signed in November 2023. The M-346FA is a twin-engine jet capable of both advanced pilot training and light combat, powered by two Honeywell F124-GA-200 turbofan engines producing 28 kilonewtons of thrust each. The first aircraft completed a test flight in its Nigerian delivery livery on 7 March 2026; initial deliveries are expected before year-end 2026. Nigeria is also receiving AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters from the United States under a $997 million package and has taken delivery of AgustaWestland AW-109 Trekker rotorcraft for maritime surveillance. Wing Loong II unmanned aerial vehicles from China, and Bayraktar TB2s from Turkey round out recent air acquisitions.
Despite these additions, the army and navy see stagnation. Both services absorbed steep investment cuts to protect personnel budgets, a trade-off that limits near-term equipment modernization and logistics upgrades for ground and maritime forces.
Digital Infrastructure and Domestic Industry
Beyond hardware, Nigeria is investing in command architecture. On 19 March 2026, Defence Minister General Christopher Gwabin Musa and MARSS Group CEO Johannes Pinl signed a $190 million memorandum of understanding in London to deploy NiDAR, an artificial intelligence-powered Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence (C4I) platform, across the country.
NiDAR is sensor-agnostic – it pulls data from radar, thermal cameras, sonar, and other sources into a single tactical picture. A national command centre and several regional hubs will be built under the programme, backed by UK Export Finance. MARSS states NiDAR is already operating at more than 60 sites globally; Nigeria would be among the first countries to deploy it at national scale.
On the domestic production side, the Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria (DICON) Act of 2023 set a target of sourcing 40% of Nigeria’s defence equipment locally by 2027. Recent activity shows some momentum: a joint venture between DICON and an Emirati investment firm, Elmirate Capital, signed a $200 million MoU on 16 March 2026 to produce satellite systems, tactical unmanned aerial vehicles, and armoured vehicles domestically. A separate February 2026 deal with local company Terra Industries established a venture to produce autonomous systems and AI-enabled sentry towers. The first locally produced rifles under the DICON-D7G joint venture have reached delivery.
Whether these initiatives can scale fast enough to matter is another question. A 2021 report by the Centre for Democracy and Development estimated Nigeria had lost up to $15 billion over 20 years through fraudulent arms procurement. That legacy of opacity has not been erased by new corporate structures.
A Shrinking Regional Share, a Persistent Relevance
Nigeria’s nominal budget growth obscures a structural decline in relative standing. A decade ago, Nigeria accounted for around 45% of total military spending in West Africa. That share now stands at 22%, as the Alliance of Sahel States – Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, all under military governments – collectively account for 28% of regional defence expenditure, up from 14% a decade ago, according to IISS. Fiscal pressure at home and political turbulence in the Sahel have reshuffled the region’s balance.
The budget also carries a political dimension. In October 2025, 16 military officers were arrested on charges of plotting a coup, reportedly driven by discontent over limited career advancement. Tinubu subsequently replaced the chief of defence staff and the defence minister. Increased military spending can be read, in part, as a stabilising signal to a restless officer corps.
Sustaining current spending levels will be difficult. The IMF projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.1% in 2026, but the fiscal deficit is forecast to widen to 4.4% of GDP – up from 1.8% in 2025 – and oil revenue remains the crucial variable. Continued naira weakness will keep eroding the foreign currency purchasing power needed for overseas procurement.
The next concrete test of the modernisation plan is the delivery of the first M-346FA jets, expected later this year. If early deliveries arrive on schedule and NiDAR’s national rollout progresses, Nigeria can point to genuine capability gains. If procurement funds are delayed – a chronic problem that lawmakers specifically flagged during the Army budget hearing in February – the gap between budget lines and battlefield effect will widen further.