The long-standing strife between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has taken a new dimension. Large numbers of troops from Rwanda have been pouring across the border into the DRC to help rebels seize the regional capital of Goma before an emergency UN meeting about the crisis takes place on Sunday, intelligence officials have warned.
Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) soldiers are believed to have secretly crossed into the eastern DRC over the past few days to assist a lightning offensive by the M23 militia. Officials speaking to the media said the RDF had cranked up the pressure on the Congolese city by massing troops on the Rwandan side of the border, a few hundred meters from central Goma. Most of the RDF’s most senior commanders are said to have been deployed in the Rwandan city of Gisenyi, less than a mile across the border from Goma.
Fierce skirmishes between M23 advance units and the Congolese army were reported on the outskirts of Goma throughout Saturday. Thirteen UN peacekeepers were killed in fighting, nine South African peacekeepers, three from the Malawi Defence Forces, and a Uruguayan member of the UN force who was killed while four others were wounded. The frontline appears to be moving ever closer to Goma’s outskirts, with one source saying the fighting was almost within the city limits, having bypassed the vast refugee camps that hold more than a million people displaced by the fighting.
A major offensive by the Rwandan-backed M23 was foiled overnight, Congolese army sources said. “Goma’s defences are just about holding out, but they [Rwanda] want to take Goma before the UNSC [UN Security Council],” said a senior intelligence source, requesting anonymity.
Meanwhile, Rwandan President, Paul Kagame, paid an official visit to Turkiye on Thursday at the invitation of Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish Communications Director, Fahrettin Altun, said Wednesday. During the visit, which marks the first official visit between Rwanda and Turkiye at the presidential level, steps to be taken to strengthen bilateral ties, as well as regional and international issues, will be discussed, Altun said on X. While in Turkey, several top defence companies like Baykar and Aselsan showed President Kagame their latest cutting-edge weaponry. Baykar produces the well-known and combat-proven Bayraktar TB2 drone which is quite popular and has been deployed by many African militaries. Aselsan also produces several defence and support systems for the military.
Türkiye says it is ready to provide any support needed to resolve the dispute between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, should both parties desire it, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday. “We, as Türkiye, are ready to provide any support necessary to resolve this issue (the dispute between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo) which will contribute to stability and peace in the Great Lakes Region, should both parties wish for it,” Erdogan told a joint news conference with his visiting Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame in the capital Ankara.
“Within the framework of the principle of finding African solutions to African problems, we aim to contribute to the continent’s stability and development on the basis of equal partnership and win-win cooperation,” Erdogan said, praising Rwanda’s efforts to establish stability and security in the East Africa and Great Lakes region.
He added that Ankara “sincerely supports” the direct negotiations being carried out and led by Angola’s mediation.
Stating that Paul Kagame’s visit to Türkiye marked the first presidential-level visit, Erdogan called it “a new milestone in deepening our cooperation.”
Back home, the DRC recalled its diplomats from Rwanda and asked Rwanda to cease diplomatic and consular activities in the Congolese capital Kinshasa, within 48 hours, according to a leaked foreign ministry letter to the Rwandan embassy. The UN Security Council brought forward an emergency meeting on Sunday to discuss the crisis. When the M23 captured Goma in 2012, its forces rapidly withdrew when Rwanda came under intense international pressure to stop backing the militia. This time, intelligence sources believe, Rwanda wants to take control of the city before the West can summon an effective response.
Such a move will rely on M23 units imminently breaching Goma’s embattled defences, routing the Congolese army, and assuming control of the city of more than a million people on the northern shore of Lake Kivu. Before the recent influx of Rwandan troops, UN experts estimated that up to 4,000 RDF personnel were operating inside the DRC. Sources also warn that Rwanda will not stop at Goma and is hoping to seize the city of Bukavu, which lies close to the border at the southern tip of Lake Kivu.
Last November, the United States voiced deep concern over reports of ceasefire violations in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, calling for immediate de-escalation from both involved nations. Specifically, the U.S. urged Rwanda to withdraw all Rwanda Defense Force personnel and equipment, including surface-to-air missile systems, from the DRC.
In December, the US sent a Bombardier Challenger 604 aircraft ISR aircraft into Uganda and Democratic Republic of the Congo to monitor the situation.
The M23 insurgency in the DRC’s mineral-rich east has intensified this year, with rebels seizing control of more territory. Last week they took control of Minova, a key town along one of Goma’s main supply routes. Two days later, they captured Sake, a town 12 miles from Goma and previously the army’s main defensive position against the M23. The developments threaten the supply of food and basic supplies in Goma.
In June 2022, the DRC and Rwanda exchanged artillery fire. The shelling lasted 21 minutes. This was not the first time such an incident is occuring, similarly, in 2023 January, Rwanda’s defense force shot at a Democratic Republic of Congo Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack jet with man portable air defence weapon (MANPAD) that allegedly violated its airspace, as tensions between the neighboring countries escalate.
Many analysts are critical of the West’s response to the crisis, particularly its failure to rein in Rwanda’s president, Paul Kagame. The UK, US, and France – three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – are accused by critics of being too close to Kagame. In a statement on Saturday, the EU said: “Rwanda must cease its support for the M23 and withdraw.” The Rwandan government says it does not back the M23.
The situation remains tense as the international community watches closely, hoping for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Although, Turkey and Rwanda already have an existing defence cooperation agreement. Turkey views Rwanda as an important potential defence customer. In January 2023, as part of a five-country African tour, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu arrived in Rwanda on 12 January and during his two-day visit, he signed three cooperation agreements with his Rwandan counterpart, Dr Vincent Biruta, in a number of areas, including trade, education, diplomacy, industry, defence and security. It was yet another step in strengthening bilateral ties between their countries. Biruta noted that the bilateral trade volume between the two countries has increased from $33 million to $180 million, to which Cavusoglu added: “Our trade and economic relations are developing rapidly. The volume of trade has increased by more than five times in the last three years. This means that there is a huge potential. The two countries should work together to further increase the volume of trade”.
