# Israel wary of Egypt’s burgeoning air power

- Link: https://www.military.africa/2025/02/israel-wary-of-egypts-burgeoning-air-power/
- Published: 2025-02-17T08:54:43+01:00
- Author: Military Africa

The Middle East has long been characterized by its intricate web of alliances, rivalries,
and military strategies, where air power plays a pivotal role. Recently, Israel 
has expressed concerns over Egypt’s bolstering of its air force, particularly with
the potential acquisition of advanced Chinese J-10C fighter jets equipped with long-
range PL-15 air-to-air missiles. This development signals a potential shift in the
regional balance of power, prompting Israel to reassess its strategic military post.

## Regional Air Superiority Contest

Israel’s air force has historically been a cornerstone of its defense strategy, 
famously demonstrated during the Six-Day War of 1967 with Operation Focus, where
the Israeli Air Force (IAF) effectively neutralized the Egyptian Air Force on the
ground. Since then, Israel has maintained air superiority through technological 
advantages, primarily supplied by the United States, including state-of-the-art 
F-35 stealth fighters and advanced missile defense systems.

Egypt, on the other hand, has been modernizing its military capabilities, partly
in response to regional security threats like the insurgency in Sinai and the broader
geopolitical landscape. The Egyptian Air Force, while numerically superior in terms
of aircraft, has traditionally lagged behind Israel in terms of technology and combat
effectiveness. However, recent developments suggest a possible narrowing of this
gap.

The Egyptian army has increased its military investments with China in recent years
in response to the close military ties between Israel and the US. The US [threatened to sanction](https://www.military.africa/2019/04/us-could-sanction-egypt-for-purchasing-russian-su-30-fighter-jet/)
Egypt if Cairo goes ahead with its planned purchase of the Russian built Sukhoi 
Su-35 super flanker fighter jet.

Egypt had also looked towards procuring 24 Eurofighter Typhoon multirole jets, 24
M346 jet trainers, and a surveillance satellite from Italy. However, that [deal was also scuttled ](https://www.military.africa/2020/06/human-rights-issues-delays-egypts-defence-mega-deal-with-italy/)
due to Egypt’s human rights record.

ADVERTISEMENT

Subsequently, in 2022, the U.S. then [offered](https://www.military.africa/2022/03/u-s-offers-f-15s-to-egypt-to-kill-su-35-acquisition-plans/)
F-15 fighter jets to Egypt to kill it’s Su-35 acquisition plans. Unsurprisingly,
Israel was keen on Egypt getting the Boeing F-15 Eagle fighter jets, and even [tried to persuade](https://www.military.africa/2022/03/israel-keen-on-successful-f-15-sale-to-egypt-as-defence-ties-improves/)
the United States to approve the sale of the aircraft to Cairo, as part of Jerusalem’s
efforts to improve relations between Cairo and Washington.

In 2015, Egypt signed a contract with Dassault Aviation to [purchase](https://www.military.africa/2023/03/egyptian-air-force-rafale-achieves-10000-flight-hours/)
24 Rafale fighter jets, marking the first sale of these advanced aircraft to a foreign
country. This initial deal was [followed by another agreement in 2021 ](https://www.military.africa/2021/05/egypt-buying-30-additional-rafale-aircraft-from-france/)
for an additional 30 Rafale jets, bringing the total number to 54. This acquisition
makes the Egyptian Air Force the [second-largest operator of Rafale jets in the world,](https://www.military.africa/2024/11/egypts-first-rafale-f3-rolled-out-in-france/)
after the French Air Force.

ADVERTISEMENT

![Dassault Rafale Egypt: Israel wary of Egypt's burgeoning air power](https://www.
military.africa/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Dassault-Rafale-Egypt-768x512-1.jpg)

The Dassault Rafale is a French twin-engine, canard delta wing, multirole fighter
aircraft designed and built by Dassault Aviation.

The Rafale jets are stationed at Gebel el-Basur Air Base in Cairo, where they play
a crucial role in enhancing Egypt’s air defense and combat capabilities. The deal
also includes a €240 million contract for equipment and munitions from Safran Electronics
and Defense, as well as missile-maker MBDA.

The Egyptian Air Force is considering the [possibility of acquiring Chinese J-10C and J-31 fighter jets ](https://www.military.africa/2024/07/egyptian-air-force-eyes-chinese-fighter-jets-to-counter-f-35/)
to modernize its fleet and replace American combat aircraft.

Besides aerial assets, the country’s surviving Dassault Mirage 2000s (of 20 originally
delivered in 1986-88) have recently [received Emirati Al Tariq glide bombs](https://www.military.africa/2021/10/egyptian-air-force-fighter-jets-fitted-with-al-tariq-guided-bomb/),
and may still retain AS30 air-to-surface missiles (ASMs).

The Al Tariq has also been integrated on Egypt’s Lockheed Martin F-16Cs – at least
on the most recent Block 52 aircraft.

## Egypt’s Chinese J-10 Fighter jets

Reports in Israeli media have highlighted growing concerns within Tel Aviv’s defense
and security circles over Egypt’s [potential acquisition of advanced Chinese J-10C fighter jets,](https://www.military.africa/2024/09/egypt-to-acquire-j-10c-multirole-fighter-jets-from-china/#google_vignette)
particularly if they are equipped with PL-15 air-to-air missiles. These missiles,
known for their extended range of 200 to 300 kilometers, could significantly boost
Egypt’s aerial combat capabilities and alter the regional air power balance.

![Israel wary of Egypt's burgeoning air power](https://www.military.africa/wp-content/
uploads/2025/02/j-10.jpg)

The J-10 was a revolutionary leap forward in China’s indigenous fighter production
capability and it remains a staple of China’s air arms.

The Chinese J-10C, as a fourth-generation multirole combat aircraft, boasts advanced
weaponry that enables it to stand toe-to-toe with the latest Western fighter jets.
Equipped with the PL-10 missile, a short-range air-to-air missile developed by China,
the J-10C enhances Egypt’s air combat capabilities significantly.

According to the Israeli defense website Nziv, Egypt’s interest in the J-10C forms
part of a broader strategy to modernize its air force and diversify its military
suppliers beyond traditional Western partners. This follows Egypt’s successful procurement
of French Rafale fighter jets, the Russian Su-35 (with some deliveries still uncertain
due to geopolitical factors), American F-16s, and the MiG-29M.

## The J-10C and PL-15: A Game Changer?

The potential acquisition by Egypt of J-10C fighters from China, if equipped with
PL-15 missiles, introduces a new variable. The PL-15 missile is noted for its extended
range and advanced targeting capabilities, potentially allowing Egyptian fighters
to engage Israeli aircraft from beyond visual range (BVR), something that was not
previously within Egypt’s capabilities with their largely downgraded F-16 fleet.

![Israel wary of Egypt's burgeoning air power](https://www.military.africa/wp-content/
uploads/2025/02/pl-15E.jpg)

China’s PL-15 has extended its missile range to 400-500 kilometers, targeting high-
value U.S. assets like early warning, refueling, and bomber aircraft.

This advancement could challenge Israel’s aerial dominance, particularly since the
PL-15 is considered superior in range to the American AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles, which
are part of Israel’s current arsenal. Posts on X have highlighted discussions around
this, with some users pointing out that while Egypt’s air defense might be obsolete
against fifth-generation jets, the addition of advanced missiles could alter the
dynamics of any aerial engagement.

ADVERTISEMENT

Reports suggest that Egypt might receive the PL-15E variant, an export version of
the missile with a reduced range of 150 kilometers, compared to the standard PL-
15’s 200-300 kilometers used by the Chinese military. Despite the reduced range,
the PL-15E would still provide a substantial enhancement to Egypt’s air-to-air combat
capabilities, exceeding the range of existing missiles in the region.

Israeli analysts also point out that the presence of the J-10CE9001 aircraft at 
the Zhuhai Air Show indicates that China may already be preparing units for export,
possibly including Egypt as a buyer. If confirmed, this deal would mark a milestone
in Egypt’s efforts to strengthen its air force with advanced multi-role fighter 
jets capable of competing with the latest Western and Russian aircraft.

Israeli concerns are not just about the J-10C acquisition but also the integration
of the PL-15 missile into the Egyptian Air Force. Equipped with an active electronically
scanned array (AESA) radar, this missile is designed for beyond-visual-range (BVR)
combat and could allow Egyptian fighter jets to engage enemy aircraft from much 
greater distances.

Israel has long maintained air superiority in the region, largely due to its access
to advanced American-made weaponry, including F-35 stealth fighters and sophisticated
air defense systems. However, the introduction of the PL-15 missile to Egypt’s arsenal
could challenge Israel’s dominance in aerial engagements, as the PL-15 outperforms
the American AIM-120 AMRAAM, which has a shorter effective range.

## Israel keen on maintaining qualitative military edge (QME)

The report noted that Washington and Paris have historically refrained from providing
Egypt with long-range air-to-air missiles to maintain Israel’s qualitative military
edge (QME). In past arms deals, Egypt received French MICA and American AIM-7 Sparrow
missiles, which have considerably shorter ranges than the PL-15.

![Israeli Air Force members wait for F-35I Adirs to launch for a Red Flag-Nellis
23-2 mission at Nellis Air Force Base](https://www.military.africa/wp-content/uploads/
2025/02/230316-F-WM701-1008-1024x681.jpeg)

Israeli Air Force members wait for F-35I Adirs to launch for a Red Flag-Nellis 23-
2 mission at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, March 16, 2023. Red Flag is an opportunity
to build on the success of JUNIPER OAK 23-2, JUNIPER FALCON and additional combined
exercises to enhance interoperability with Israel, strengthen bilateral cooperation,
and improve capabilities in ways that enhance and promote regional stability and
reinforce the United States’ enduring commitment to Israel’s security. (U.S. Air
Force photo by Airman 1st Class Trevor Bell)

Israeli defense officials have previously lobbied against supplying Egypt with weapons
that could challenge Israeli air superiority. In the case of the Su-35, the U.S.
exerted significant diplomatic pressure to prevent Russia from delivering the aircraft
to Egypt. A similar stance might be taken regarding the J-10C deal, though China’s
increasing military cooperation with Egypt could limit Washington’s influence. Although,
Israel is keen on [Egypt getting the Boeing F-15 Eagle fighter jets](https://www.military.africa/2022/03/israel-keen-on-successful-f-15-sale-to-egypt-as-defence-ties-improves/#google_vignette)
instead, and is trying to persuade the United States to approve the sale of the 
aircraft to Cairo.

While there has been no official confirmation from Cairo regarding the purchase 
of the J-10C, growing speculation has already triggered discussions within Israeli
defense circles about the long-term implications. If Egypt integrates these fighter
jets into its air force, it could alter the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean
and the Middle East, especially in scenarios involving air superiority conflicts.

Analysts suggest that the potential acquisition of the J-10C and PL-15 missiles 
reflects Egypt’s broader strategy of military diversification. This approach aims
to reduce reliance on Western suppliers, increase strategic autonomy, and enhance
deterrence capabilities amid evolving regional security dynamics.

Egypt has also previously procured a [variety of Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)](https://www.military.africa/2024/04/complete-african-drone-procurement-data1980-2024),
such as the CH4B and Wing Loong 1. It also initiated local production of the ASN-
209 reconnaissance UAV and assembled significant numbers of K-8 Karakorum training
aircraft domestically.

An enhanced Egyptian air force could potentially lead to a scenario where Israel’s
freedom to conduct air operations, particularly over contested territories like 
Gaza, could be challenged. This is particularly pertinent given recent conflicts
and the ongoing need to maintain air superiority for both defense and tactical operations.

Moreover, the integration of such advanced technology might not only be about direct
combat capabilities but also about signaling Egypt’s intent to play a more assertive
role in regional politics. This could affect Israel’s strategic planning, especially
in scenarios involving multi-front engagements or in the context of broader Middle
Eastern alliances.

For Israel, any change in the air power equation is approached with caution. The
Israeli Air Force continues to upgrade its fleet with F-35I Adir stealth fighters
and F-15EX aircraft to maintain its aerial dominance. However, Egypt’s access to
advanced missile technology could prompt Israel to advance its countermeasures and
air combat tactics.

As military procurement trends evolve, the coming months may reveal more about Egypt’s
defense plans and whether the potential acquisition of the J-10C will materialize.
If confirmed, this development is likely to prompt diplomatic discussions between
Egypt, China, Israel, and Western powers regarding the shifting balance of military
power in the region.

The relationship between Egypt and Israel, normalized by the 1979 peace treaty, 
has seen various phases of warmth and tension. Despite closer cooperation in areas
like security in Sinai and energy projects, the prospect of Egypt enhancing its 
military capabilities, especially in ways that could be perceived as threatening
to Israel, might strain this relationship.

The sentiment on platforms like X shows a mix of concern and analysis from observers,
suggesting that while Egypt’s military advancements might not immediately lead to
direct conflict, they do raise discussions about the balance of power and potential
future confrontations.

## What’s Next?

The potential for Egypt to acquire J-10C fighters and PL-15 missiles has not yet
materialized into a confirmed deal, but the mere rumor of it has already stirred
strategic reevaluation in Israel. Should this transaction proceed, both countries
will likely engage in a new phase of military diplomacy and possibly arms control
discussions to manage this shift in capabilities.

For Israel, this might mean a push for further technological upgrades or strategic
partnerships to maintain its qualitative military edge. For Egypt, it could be a
step towards reclaiming a more significant role in regional military dynamics, not
just as a counterbalance to Israel but also in relation to other Middle Eastern 
powers.

### _Related_